It’s October and this is our second major Midterm update.

In the first update we gave you the ratings for all the House and Senate races currently. 

With razor-thin margins in both chambers, Trump's agenda hangs by a thread. Republicans hold just 219-212 in the House and need 60 Senate votes to break filibusters. Losing either chamber in 2026 would be catastrophic for America's future.

Current House:  The Ungovernable Margin 

Here is the current House lineup:  219 Republicans and 212 Democrats with four vacant seats because of the deaths of three sitting Democrats and the resignation of one republican.

The number of votes needed to pass legislation in this configuration is 216, which means that as of September, Republicans can only lose 3 votes. 

Special elections will be completed by December for all of these seats.  If the Democrats keep their seats, the Republicans will only have a one vote margin in the current configuration of the House, assuming that Democrats continue to vote as a bloc.  That’s just the math.  It doesn’t have anything to do with the politics of current House members.